The 2021 Arc has long looked like being a vintage renewal. Tarnawa, who probably would have won last year’s race if she had lined up, sets a solid standard. But this year, she has to face a two-pronged Godolphin challenge. Two exceptional colts: one bidding for history as the first St Leger winner to go on to win the Arc in the same season, one aiming for a rare treble of Derby, King George and Arc victories – an achievement which would probably make him the best horse in the world right now.
The weather is set to douse Longchamp’s hallowed turf this weekend, but let us hope it does not dampen the spectacle at the last minute. Here are my thoughts:
Mojo Star (1)
Mojo Star has been dependable all season. He was given too much to do when 5th in the Irish Derby, but his Derby and St Leger efforts read very well. I was particularly impressed with his St Leger run; he stayed on very strongly that day having been in front a long way from home. There is nothing that compels me to suggest he can reverse the form with the Godolphin pair here, but I would not be surprised to see him run a big race and his price (50-1) does not give him the credit he deserves.
Hurricane Lane (2)
Immediately after the Derby I was very much of the opinion that the superior horse finished 3rd. Clearly Hurricane Lane did not run to his best that day; he had lost both front shoes and the winner appeared to have had a smoother passage. For a while, it looked like I was spot-on. In the Irish Derby, Hurricane Lane showed he had the attitude to match his talent and then further enhanced his reputation by absolutely routing the opposition in the Grand Prix de Paris. However, Adayar’s impressive King George win showed that I had significantly underrated his Derby form and he is clearly the pick of the Godolphin colts heading into this weekend.
I’m pretty convinced that Hurricane Lane absolutely emptied in the final furlong of the St Leger – he certainly looked a tired horse afterwards – but class and courage saw him power on to an almost 3 length win (beating Mojo Star who had been 3 ¼ lengths in front of him in the Derby when things had not gone to plan). Much has been made of the record of Leger winners in the race – no Leger winner has ever won the Arc in the same season – but it is important to remember that Hurricane Lane is not a typical Leger winner: he is far classier. 1M4f is his trip; he is not a slow horse. Tactically versatile and drawn well in stall 2, he has to have a fantastic chance of making history on Sunday.
Tarnawa (3)
On known form, Tarnawa arguably sets the standard here: she is the one to beat. She probably would have won 2020’s renewal if she had run in it, but in the Godolphin duo she faces a stronger challenge this year.
This has obviously been the target for her for a long time. Her prep seems to have gone very smoothly and she lost nothing in defeat when going down by (an unlucky) ¾ of a length to St Mark’s Basilica in the Irish Champion Stakes last time out.
She is 2 from 2 at Longchamp (both Group 1s), tactically versatile and will handle the ground. She looks set to run a solid race.
Love (4)
Love was a very short-priced favourite for this race last year before being ruled out on account of soft ground. She will almost certainly have to cope with very soft ground on Sunday, but there is a good chance that this will be her last run and connections are probably more than happy to roll the dice with her here; she certainly has less of a reputation to protect this time around after what has been widely regarded as a disappointing season. Frequently I have seen it suggested that she “hasn’t trained on” - but I cannot have that at all. As is the case with Snowfall, Love’s 3YO form against her own age and sex was overrated. She has added another Group 1 to her impressive CV this season and her narrow 2nd to a rapidly improving filly (conceding 9lbs) last time out was very close to her best form in my opinion.
On better ground, I would be very keen on her at the prices. Having said that, there is very little to suggest she will not cope with soft ground other than her trainer’s insistence that she will not - but who am I to question APOB’s opinion?
Deep Bond (5)
I’m not one for sitting on the fence and my instinct is to completely discredit the form of of his Prix Foy win; I do not think it was as good as it first looked. I think he was flattered that day and took advantage of an easy lead. For me, the proximity of Broome downgrades the performance; if he finishes 1 ½ lengths in front of Broome on Sunday, I doubt he will be in the mix. He will not get his own way in this bigger field and soft ground is a big concern.
Bubble Gift (6)
Bubble Gift was behind Baby Rider in the Grand Prix de Paris, but sprung somewhat of a surprise when beating him by a nose in the Group 2 Prix Niel over the Arc C&D. He would have to improve plenty on that effort to be involved here though.
Broome (7)
I have seen a few people tipping Broome at fancy prices. He is 66-1 as I write this, but he is only here to ensure the Arc is a test of stamina for Snowfall in my opinion. He has just 1 win from 7 starts at 1m4f. His best form has come over 1m2f. Breaking from stall 7, I expect him to be prominent early and would be very surprised if he could keep up the gallop over this trip on soft ground.
Alenquer (8)
His defeat of Adayar (by ½ a length) at Sandown obviously cannot be taken at face value and he has been beaten in both his attempts in Group 1 company. However, I do not think we have seen the best of him yet; soft ground will play to his strengths and he is probably a slightly bigger price (33-1) than he should be.
Snowfall (9)
I have been very against Snowfall. She has done nothing wrong, other than being a ridiculously short price for this red-hot Arc renewal. I was actually disappointed to see her beaten last time, because if she was heading into the weekend still 5-2 favourite, there would be significant value elsewhere in the market. At 5-1, I still think her price is too short.
Her Oaks win was visually impressive, but she beat a bunch of non-stayers that did not run any sort of race that day. Ultimately, she won a Classic by 16 lengths and nobody can take that away from her, but a 16-length beating of Mystery Angel is just short of the form required to win this Arc; she would have to improve on that effort. However, her form has dipped with each run since, culminating in a disappointing defeat in the Prix Vermeille. A slow early pace was blamed for her lacklustre run that day and we were told that a greater test of stamina in the Arc would help her show her best. I am not sure she has the tactical speed to overcome a poor draw though and she finds herself in stall 9, which has only been successful once in the last 50 years (Urban Sea) – Enable was beaten at 1–2 from 9 in 2019.
It has been widely assumed that she will be suited by soft ground, but it is important to recognise that there is a huge difference between the recently rain-softened, loose-on-top going she thrived on at Epsom and absolutely bottomless ground which she will likely have to deal with here.
She is obviously not without a chance, but I think it has been underestimated just how much she needs to improve to win. She needs to put up a considerable career-best and/or at least 3 of her rivals need to run below form to give her a chance. If she won, I genuinely believe it would be one of Aidan O’Brien’s greatest training performances.
Sealiway (10)
Sealiway’s 2nd to St Mark’s Basilica last time out in the Prix du Jockey Club reads well. He was outpaced by the winner in the final furlong that day and this step up in trip looks like it will play to his strengths – the rain will not harm his chances either. He is likely to find a few of them too good, but he certainly looks big at 40-1.
Adayar (11)
Until he proves otherwise, I firmly believe that Adayar is the world’s best racehorse. I read his Derby form completely wrong to begin with and did not give him anything like the credit he deserved. His King George win was hugely impressive in my opinion; I really rate the form. Yes, Mishriff is better over 1m2f, but only by 2 or 3 lbs, and Love might not be the superstar that many thought she was last year, nevertheless she has still added a Group 1 to her CV this season and has been running solid races in defeat. Additionally, Adayar almost pulled his chance away in the early stages yet still powered clear. His performance can be upgraded as a result
My worry would be that he pulls hard again in the early stages of the Arc. To be fair to him, the initial pace was slow in the King George and they will go a much sterner gallop in the early stages here. But being drawn in 11 is not ideal and Buick will likely have to make a move to get a position at a time when he wants the horse to settle. Having said that, stall 1 was far from ideal in the Derby. If there is a horse in the race that is head and shoulders ahead of anything else, it is Adayar.
Torquator Tasso (12)
Cosily won the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Baden last time, but this is a huge step up in class and it would be a major surprise if he could be involved.
Baby Rider (13)
He did not have the smoothest of runs when 5th to Hurricane Lane in the Grand Prix de Paris, but it is hard to envisage him reversing the form with Godolphin’s St Leger hero.
Chrono Genesis (14)
Chrono Genesis is a very talented mare, but it is hard to get a firm grasp on just how good she might be. My best guess is that the pick of her form would put her ever so slightly behind the market principles. I think the betting had her underestimated for a while, but at 12-1 she is probably about the price she should be now. She would have to be an absolute superstar to do it from stall 14, on soft ground, having not run since June – but she just might be.
Raabihah (15)
Raabihah is the home side’s best hope of retaining the Arc, but she could only manage 5th in the race last year and the 2021 renewal looks far stronger. She also has to come from stall 15 of 15.
Verdict:
On all known form, I think Tarnawa sets the standard and is the one to beat. This has been her target all year, her prep has gone smoothly and she should run a solid race from stall 3. However, I would fancy the Godolphin pair to improve past her. Hurricane Lane has got a tremendous attitude and will be staying on strongly where it matters. But, if there is an absolute champion in the race, it is unquestionably Adayar and, for me, he is the most likely winner. I would be happy to place lay Snowfall at her current price; she is still far too short. Alenquer (33-1), Sealiway (40-1) and Mojo Star (50-1) are all probably over-priced.
1st Adayar
2nd Hurricane Lane
3rd Tarnawa
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