The Juddmonte International is probably the race I look forward to most each season. It is a race that consistently attracts the highest-rated horses Britain and Ireland have to offer. As a result, it has increasingly become a stallion-making contest and, therefore, it has become a breed-shaping event. In fact, this year’s odds-on favourite is bidding to emulate his sire (the great Sea The Stars, winner of the Juddmonte in 2009) and is being campaigned in the same sequence of races as the incomparable Frankel, who put up the highest RPR ever achieved when winning the race in 2012.
In recent seasons, the cream has tended to rise to the top in the Juddmonte. But, historically, that has not always been the case. The first running of the race (originally known as the Benson and Hedges Gold Cup) saw the only defeat of Brigadier Gerard, the 1/3 favourite. There were another 4 odds-on favourites turned over in the next 5 renewals. More recently, in 2015, the 109-rated Arabian Queen took the scalp (and unbeaten record) of the 130-rated Golden Horn (4/9F) at 50/1.
So, on Wednesday evening, are we going to be talking about Baaeed in the same breath as some of the titans of the sport who have won the Juddmonte? Or, will his be another name on the list of great horses to have been beaten in the race?
Baaeed has seemed pretty bulletproof so far. He has looked relaxed, professional, tactically-versatile and he has beaten everything that he has come up against. He is not flashy or exuberant. He is only ever going to do what is needed and his Official Rating of 128 only tells half the story.
However, it is pretty easy to pick holes in his bare form. My own ratings have him running to 125 in the Queen Anne and just 122 in the Sussex Stakes (although the Sussex is where he impressed me the most; he could not have won much more effortlessly that day). I am not disputing his talent. I am not saying that he is not a 130+ horse; because I think it is likely he could run to that mark if there was something to make him. But, as far as I am concerned, he has never done anything to justify a mark higher than 125 yet.
As I am writing this, he is a best-priced 4/9 favourite – and he deserves to be. 4/9 equals an implied probability of 69.2% (minus a couple % for the bookmakers’ profit margin). Essentially, the market suggests he has an almost 1 in 3 chance of getting beat. I would agree with that. If you disagree, stop reading this and go and take all the 4/9 that you can.
There are obviously several scenarios in which he could get beat. Firstly, he simply might not stay the trip. He looks like he will stay, his pedigree says he will stay, his trainer and jockey are confident he will stay – but there is obviously a chance that we are all wrong. 11 of the last 12 winners of the race had run at least once over 1m2f or further. The exception? Frankel.
He might underperform. If he ran 5lbs below his other three runs this year, for whatever reason, there is a decent chance it would not be enough. I am pretty sure that the better the ground, the better he is. If York gets the forecast rain this week, there is a chance the ground could blunt his brilliance.
There is also the intriguing possibility that he could run his race and be beaten by a better horse. Probable? No. Possible? Yes. When winning this race by 6-lengths last year, Mishriff arguably ran to a higher-level than Baaeed ever has (I am well aware there is 1lb between that run and Baaeed’s best on Offical Ratings). A repeat of that might be enough to at least make Baaeed pull out all the stops. Mishriff has taken the same route this year that he did in 2021, running admirably in defeat in the Eclipse and King George, without setting the world alight. His newly-aquired habit of being slowly away would be a major concern for anyone taking the 4/1 about him though.
I really like Native Trail. Despite Coroebus disappointing in France yesterday, I still really rate the Guineas form. He went down by ¾ length at Newmarket and was arguably hampered by his draw. His only other defeat came when running a career-best on his first attempt at 1m2f in the Eclipse. The more I watch that race, the more I think the ground inconvenienced him that day. I do not think he fully let himself down on it – but he definitely stayed the trip. If the rain comes, I think his chance will increase. I would not be at all surprised if there was more to come from him at the trip. If I had to have a bet in the race, I would back him each-way at 13/2.
For me, High Definition is the runner that makes the race absolutely fascinating. The one-time Derby favourite has undoubtedly not lived up to initial expectations, but has shown glimpses of that early promise again this season – particularly when trying to make all and going down by a neck in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. I do not think he is as slow as people think; he just takes a while to find his stride. He is a big, long-limbed horse and I think he will really relish the flat, galloping nature of the Knavesmire. His previous run at the course (when 3rd in the Dante, beaten 2 lengths) was probably a better effort than it seemed at the time. I think there is a very good chance he will get an uncontested lead (if they want it) and, although he will stay further, I think the priority will be getting him into a nice rhythm rather than deliberately trying to force the pace with him. If he can get rolling into the straight, he might get some of the others racing a lot earlier than they would like.
This is a game of very fine margins and there is always a chance that a suboptimal ride will get Baaeed beat. Apart from when beating the 125-rated Palace Pier a neck last season, he has had several pounds in hand over any his opponents so far. As such, Jim Crowley has had the liberty of having a sizeable window of opportunity to ‘push the button’ and ask Baaeed to win his race. If Crowley heads into the straight with High Definition in front of him and Mishriff and/or Native Trail stalking, looking to attack late, he could have a bit of a dilemma on his hands as that window of opportunity might be a lot shorter this time around – and there is no guarantee that Baaeed’s response will be the same at the end of the extended 1m2f as it has been over a mile.
Will Baaeed extend his unbeaten record on Wednesday? Probably. Will it be easy? Probably not.
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